New MicroTSP Workfilej!z tX(XX!F9&  APPROVALQ8,` pcClF9+` *CBSNYT4F9,` 1CBSNYTF_9F9,` q9GALNEWA@`8,` AGALNEWFsI8,` IGALNEWF2Q8,` QGALNEWF88vX=9,` XMICSZ9,` _NES)g =9,` ;gPARTY07,` QnRESIDlF9,`1FIGURE28`FIGURE3=9`&}FORECAST_4_968`&tFORECASTEQ488`GRF18`GRF1A =9` GRF1B =9`GRF2Ń8`"GRF338`XMACCHAPTER_FIG1 =9`fMACCHAPTER_FIG3r=9`MACCHAPTER_FIG4]=9`&[MODEL1A8`&MODEL2W8`&MODEL3y8`&MODEL4o8`&MODEL4AF9`&MODEL58`&MODEL68`&#MODEL6AF9`|BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8KXQ@ŏ1AR@K@TM@N@_P@d;Q@6X?P@6N@+M@y~M@}tR@MۿR@ (S@p_kS@~RS@⪲BR@S:XcP@n)Q@`TR'Q@FO@{N@BOP@`V5S@VR@(\ R@Q@"OzQ@σvP@MO@F|'fP@)^L@"H@I@yܝG@EdXG@"AG@R%}D@:̗D@K!qE@ h"lE@EB[}C@OjME@)"*N@:M0O@\]."N@+M@l`q8CM@=~?L@-K@#bJ$K@s ^J@=H@(\H@YLl>)I@N_J@QL@uVM@QH=N@auN@+j0 cG@@@aM<@zCn:@Aǘ9@W!'ՒG@yt;H@*WxC@QIF@o/i֩F@F@rZ| G@ VG@^I H@J@7oQ@vöEO@!A 3N@q@K@6YMI@^}tD@= \F@KI@uq hE@&S?@o?@C@o/iEI@I +GB@pwn,A@ 7?@@Cf~J@=~O@L@<1PJ@AȓG@Kq)F@iD@ht+E@" C@m9⪚E@';E@ӟHH@oӟHK@3.J@vq QK@z{M@+HN@KRIL@CO}ZO@5$ P@sO@x@eP@O@8L@G@t^cH@`H@܀#(J@OIH@0@H@N ^J@!A N@T[lL@yN@ȘP@sP@1w-!]R@~nP@+ ,Q@>W[SL@ S@6R@)D/=Q@k}Ж3M@!YnE@YѵC@ A@ƱD@YK@fffff&F@G@H@YJ@H@fffffD@E@F@@H@G@H@33333H@fffffJ@33333K@33333sL@= ףp}M@K@QM@Q M@QP@Q>O@p= ׃O@(\UP@ ףp=P@p= cM@fffff&N@L@BA8BA8BA8BA8[Description] Modified: 1997:1 2000:4 // app_new=app_new*100 [Remarks] [Description] Modified: 1993:1 1996:1 // app_new=app_phon [Description] Modified: 1953:1 1996:1 // app_new=app_raw [Description] Modified: 1989:1 1996:1 // app_new=app_raw [History] Modified: 1989:1 1996:1 // app_new=app_phon))(,`ǖ@4Q~?'Vެ4P?jxʿ|㿭^ɿmY˿pdWO0F+;G? *5 @;:?مª?ǐ?Ǥ?w'?u? RM?ם7?Kd?\농?@uG??fԅ?5``?B4?Zd0c*?L ?}#ֻ?6Xw?6u/?Cs? E4?VsV?? ?O4vK ?F5?_z?X-%Fn?"?YF?yh?BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8[ΥP@.1Q@ʡEFP@P@1BxqO@xNQ@CVP@}"OP@9dP@16bP@jMQ@=!7IQ@%#gaOMP@0ACTO@cZB>P@R\UIP@ \O@3܀1P@ 3PP@ %lP@~M@Q,6M@҇M@N@XN@?M@1=aN@{NzN@ڧaM@ʴN@`O@ ZP@DrN@MgL@ 1M@Z_$K@yK@5)^FK@u7OJ@ S"K@KqUUL@[ӼL@{FwJ@TL@ rK@2%;L@N@agL@"K@>¥K@"L@=OK@KXc'vL@Gp#J@&zJ@/$I@6NJ@ZdI@Hz'J@8H@h^`|K@ axJ@eN]J@wJ@v^K@iiK@K!q{J@WmK@(\¥L@` 0bNL@q= ףK@5BM@[L@B`"I@I@g`GK@BQEI@ rI@I@…IJ@9}4TJ@fffffK@M@fffffK@L@J@̌K@K@LK@33333sK@fffff&K@L@33333L@M@LK@ffffffL@fffffK@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8+iP@1%P@ C8O@MP@RP@P@wѱ3zP@AP@ݠ;P@W)P@?1;P@),P@ R\P@Gzӿ&P@e,P@ZLg3P@tP@ u?kO@_vO@$(O@;W@O@tO@CN@Qs6AN@ܾbQN@EL2,N@]kN@XtM@M@/+#M@xaM@M@.OM@h BM@C@M@QhM@2AuM@8M@UM@/RΞM@NvM@j60qM@y>baM@@gM@5.GfM@13iM@glmM@ UerM@E!maM@jN@t&:PN@l!iN@%03wN@Rn^N@\N@N@<9O@zHO@/m%O@Q#O@K O@<O@0BO@ithO@LGצO@h"K=IO@n,eO@Z3O@BB>O@ P@c8P@ S P@|P@5Ff*P@ 5=P@-,VP@󾧟^sP@%NRP@7P@8ןQP@4+(P@F9؄P@0P@ P@g3mP@Q@BA8BA8BA8BA8[Remarks] [Remarks] [Remarks] [Remarks] [History] Modified: 1953:1 1999:4 // forecast_4_96.forecast galnewfllIBA8IcL@ M@KqUUK@,CK@ -SL@mL@}>baL@njêwL@AL@ZwP@P\"P@X\0,P@!d$k!P@'P@>ôkO@XO@bҌO@XpOO@/=qN@=6N@JN@a,pDN@SrM@ˮMM@՚YٜM@nM@30NM@̰ N@saKIN@ȑN@NN@a4ذ)O@v]O@*1O@)$O@'VWO@8 սWzO@_CO@\0O@tjN@;N@YP֐N@MoxN@bPNN@$!(N@;D_nN@0 M@+ M@71zM@qM@N@ HQt&N@^7;N@;"AKN@U߷[N@FTN@S8N@kA'N@AN@YSM@HbM@nNIsM@HqM@uZmM@pXM@#P@"cRP@cDHP@joO@y2O@jɌ~O@PEO@D' P@t(P@V;uiP@wC P@cNO@ O@/SO@Z.4fWO@UTN@vXN@ZrdN@&oN@sPM@^C%N@ӞFN@[N@߰(O@Ī% FO@J`8O@x/ *O@ "f;O@%DvjO@{O@иdkO@ukO@xGvO@ޝ/O@tO@ѴO@slO@.!O@UO@tjO3 P@xqi#P@ɍZ{3P@;_Q~MP@7Þ@<^P@\S|P@xJץP@P@O9P@{P@(P@aP@ mP@BA8BA8BA8BA8[History] Modified: 1953:1 1999:4 // forecast_4_96.forecast galnewf88FF0XBA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8̬V@lU@333333T@,T@T@T@@U@U@W@fffffX@X@X@fffffX@aۢ̌X@X@ Y@fffff&X@9W@fffffV@T@S@9T@yU@33333V@fffffFW@33333W@fffffW@33333sW@Y@33333SW@LX@fffffV@fffffV@ W@X@@W@X@W@fffffV@W@X@V@X@W@X@X@fffff&Y@X@Y@YZ@Y@Y@Y@W@V@33333V@fffffW@W@@X@9W@LX@W@W@V@̌X@V@U@S@fffffS@R@ffffffS@R@fffffS@ T@fffffT@T@333333W@fffff&V@W@̬V@yT@@S@R@ S@fffffN@fffffR@P@M@L@333333R@R@fffffR@fffff&U@33333T@lV@U@fffffU@̌V@@V@U@33333T@`T@T@`R@Q@fffffP@33333O@ O@O@333333K@$0P@UDR@@j'Q@BizR@ʉvR@8gDioP@[rP¢P@T5A}P@{GP@RR@R@=,ԚV@V@V@f2}X@?o*Ra$X@NX@GzW@4)W@镲W@04W@+EV@cW@BB1X@W@o/iW@$bJ$ѝV@J4V@\yW@S!uU@z3W@6!cW@KhX@ @W@kW@3V@GɫsW@V@?V@3.V@Nё\S@yHP@vkR@~k /T@Xs`T@gQ@&Q@\S@6qS@&9 {T@zGU@GzT@YS@RU@@W@ W@QV@QHW@QW@{GV@{GJW@33333sV@V@V@W@`X@X@Y@33333sZ@@Z@33333Z@Z@Y@ Y@yZ@̌Z@yZ@33333SZ@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8O@O@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8P@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8N@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8P@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8N@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8O@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8Q@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8@P@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8@P@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8P@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8O@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8P@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8O@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8P@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8@P@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8@P@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8L@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8O@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8L@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8O@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8M@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8J@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8L@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8lM@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8[Remarks] [Remarks] [Description] Modified: 1953:1 1996:1 // nes=nes*100 [History] Modified: 1953:1 1996:1 // nes=nauufBA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8L?k˥ @wĨ@?1!}ʿ H_x@y3?*Rsdet?lӿe^g?f#˲?,GI?$Aya?AOS.,@*5q?uhև@GY]?yR?~U?( a?JN_,"iֿ ?F%?\d?hyP?ڋw͕X?]lP?'Nq?Q;P2R"ǣPsW/7?ّ ^C-CtC?a6*;3{?Pʅ?$h?f?lgY?q(S??Nļ?M?^;pR3 l@Aa0u?3w ~d6NX@ -Q82s)?+6J.2?7c?:m?"`x=*?$eYT}!?X z:?eA @~n*Q&D?|~?ޛj?X|$wKH?р *a޿iP%,#znnSs@d"|lh@ -) @]Qz?̀<]N?Um>*??r/J~}I5) T) ?ڈʿ"-<߿I+GN?BA8BA8BA8BA8X~@ v"ArialܙcRXk17'` }1953:1 1999:4vYAMacropartisanshipdd` "ArialV\XXX0@guDuTuF?vtvwwYKBBfffff&F@rBfflB33gBlBmBnBffnBtBzBnBfflBjBfBbB^BaB`BeBbB33kBuBkBfftBnB33{BffxBffpB33qBfftB{BpBsB{B33B̀BBB33B33BffzB33Bff~BBBBBBffBBBBffBB|B33B33{B33qBsBffrBrBffB33}BdB33qBrBlBtBrBqBpBffvBffrByB33}B{Bff|B~BBnBiByBffBffB33BffB́BB̆BB̅B̈BffBBBB33BBBffBBffBB33BBffB33ḂBB̆BffBBzBqBoBpBvByB~BzBBffB33B}B33uBnBpBffZBffRBOBXBTBXBXB^B[Bff`B33cB33gBlB^BfflBnB^BJlBJXB%VBJ\B`B%VBY]BYWB%\BRBYQB%LB}OB}_BY]B}iB}mBYoB}cBJbB%fB}cB%bBJZB%VBYKB}YBYUB}_BRBYeB%hB%nB}cBiBYqBTceBYgBYaB^:iBwjBwkBwfB%bB%fBX~@ 3"ArialܙcRX1`7050 }1953:1 1999:4~nForecastsdd` "ArialboXfoXi4W@|D}TW}t}-~ %>iBq&BB~)P@wIvBmuB=dvBvBvB?vBɘvB}vB/stBrBipBj7oBmBslB)kBjB>iB jBjBikBmB&nBqoB1oBnBdmBJmB9lB|kBxkB'kB@kBBgnBpB/sBJuBbxBQzB8c{B|B~B&B,BjBFB!ցB8zBB!BG,BBkB7kBIkBdkkBckB+PmBоpBԁrB IsBsBuB,\wBwBȱxBGzxB(yByBgxB~xBjzBC{B7|BJ2}B-S~B~BBlB(B]BǀB2SBB BBZB6BBAQB'tBBLnBՇBq&BFigure 2 Forecasts of Macropartisanship based on the Index of Consumer Sentiment, Using Data from 1953:1-1988:4 "Arialvv߃: `cc }L( "ArialpXx/hUt???X~@ v,"Arialk17'` }1953:1 1999:4cYAMacropartisanshipdd` "ArialboXfoXi4W@хDTUFtqiYKBBfffff&F@rBfflB33gBlBmBnBffnBtBzBnBfflBjBfBbB^BaB`BeBbB33kBuBkBfftBnB33{BffxBffpB33qBfftB{BpBsB{B33B̀BBB33B33BffzB33Bff~BBBBBBffBBBBffBB|B33B33{B33qBsBffrBrBffB33}BdB33qBrBlBtBrBqBpBffvBffrByB33}B{Bff|B~BBnBiByBffBffB33BffB́BB̆BB̅B̈BffBBBB33BBBffBBffBB33BBffB33ḂBB̆BffBBzBqBoBpBvByB~BzBBffB33B}B33uBnBpBffZBffRBOBXBTBXBXB^B[Bff`B33cB33gBlB^BfflBnB^BJlBJXB%VBJ\B`B%VBY]BYWB%\BRBYQB%LB}OB}_BY]B}iB}mBYoB}cBJbB%fB}cB%bBJZB%VBYKB}YBYUB}_BRBYeB%hB%nB}cBiBYqBTceBYgBYaB^:iBwjBwkBwfB%bB%fBX~@ 8*"Arial1`7050 }1953:1 1999:4Forecastsdd` "ArialRX@=D}Tt  cBӇBlBӨlBtBrB'sqBF qB pBLoBnBWnBmB:kBiBgB?]fB̄eBdBmcB cBVcB>dBfBMhBjB7kBxlBlBZlB0kBBjBiBiB9jBjBoBDtB QyBg/}BB́BOB&BWBBC%BB%BXBQBNBޮBӇB͇BχB[BaYBmBRBoBu͂B,B B?B.BwV~B5s}BhzBpxB]wBDvBnvB/vBըvBwBSwBwBMxBxB wBvB_uB BtBsB*PuBxB{B}BL)B[BBzB]B*BBB(BcBuMBdBBaB B9B^~Bl}Bf|B{zB0wB!tB,UrB#rBoBo2nBlB| oBproBmpB\JrB@tBvBMyBzBD|B9|Br|B{BzBxBPswBuBtB|sB;wrBDqBCpBfnBOmB#nBoBٖpB3qBqB ZrBrB1rBqB:qBjpB_oBnBWlBDkB,nkBĚmB4lB/+kBjBH~lB oBrBuuB5TwBexBwBG6wBwBxByBjxBxBxB7yBfyByBzBzB(|B|}B ~B BB{BiuB2,BB=BB(BIBDLBFigure 3 Forecasts of Macropartisanship based on the Index of Consumer Sentiment and Presidential Approval, Using data from 1953:1-1988:4, "ArialI `cc }X( "ArialܙcRX{hؔt@???GALNEW C GALNEW(-1) PARTY MICS*PARTY APPROVAL*PARTY1953:1 1988:4 C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C GALNEW(-1) PARTY MICS*PARTY APPROVAL*PARTY GALNEWGALNEW = C(1) + C(2)*GALNEW(-1) + C(3)*PARTY + C(4)*(MICS*PARTY) + C(5)*(APPROVAL*PARTY)1953:1 1988:4.?$O@+@w?xkz{@{nG`?"|b@z;x@L.@Wq$,f@%Z n@BA8BA8BA8@b@z;x@~@XF$쿿8Auۿm]1y)uܽ?:`?Cᎀ}?Q6k_kM+־@?-{0࿌mSA52yۭp 1?J$ 80?Sample: 1953:1 1988:4Included observations: 144@Nx=9|Kq&@ B? $Mt?/% ?44T..YY(B?RBaBeB`BËB]BXF9\#`; >@rh?KQHN\?ǹ"ݏ?k'DA֜?XZG Y}k@z} ?@?8X@.@rW?0FL@x+?5Y5c@i[͒!@aٳ2@;|@z,@B >j5X@pħ?GALNEW C GALNEW(-1) PARTY MICS*PARTY MA(1)1953:1 1996:4 C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C GALNEW(-1) PARTY MICS*PARTY MA(1) GALNEWGALNEW = C(1) + C(2)*GALNEW(-1) + C(3)*PARTY + C(4)*(MICS*PARTY) + [MA(1)=C(5),BACKCAST=1953:1]1953:1 1996:4.ĕz?-RrN@=_?ōӌ@ [?&@A!=@@W(,r@AX,uQg*;p@ʩI @BA8BA8BA8@f@A!=@@ps9h@!LB!`?Oq?@G?fNsa? xAE KȎ0?09P ꄢʜn~tD4??y?+:{?F:?Sample: 1953:1 1996:4Included observations: 176Convergence achieved after 7 iterationsBackcast: 1952:4x2 V@98,((Go@ @u61?FF|+?F:̿++Λޛ%%``$(?$4`eIA,dnnZnnnnnn8 F9$`X~@ v"Arialk1` }1953:1 1999:4YAMacropartisanship` "Arial@DڡTtrYKBBfffff&F@rBfflB33gBlBmBnBffnBtBzBnBfflBjBfBbB^BaB`BeBbB33kBuBkBfftBnB33{BffxBffpB33qBfftB{BpBsB{B33B̀BBB33B33BffzB33Bff~BBBBBBffBBBBffBB|B33B33{B33qBsBffrBrBffB33}BdB33qBrBlBtBrBqBpBffvBffrByB33}B{Bff|B~BBnBiByBffBffB33BffB́BB̆BB̅B̈BffBBBB33BBBffBBffBB33BBffB33ḂBB̆BffBBzBqBoBpBvByB~BzBBffB33B}B33uBnBpBffZBffRBOBXBTBXBXB^B[Bff`B33cB33gBlB^BfflBnB^BJlBJXB%VBJ\B`B%VBY]BYWB%\BRBYQB%LB}OB}_BY]B}iB}mBYoB}cBJbB%fB}cB%bBJZB%VBYKB}YBYUB}_BRBYeB%hB%nB}cBiBYqBTceBYgBYaB^:iBwjBwkBwfB%bB%fBX~@ A "Arial1` }1953:1 1999:4dEiGALNEWL` "Arial@DT2tYKBBghrBfflB33gBlBmBnBffnBtBzBnBfflBjBfBbB^BaB`BeBbB33kBuBkBfftBnB33{BffxBffpB33qBfftB{BpBsB{B33B̀BBB33B33BffzB33Bff~BBBBBBffBBBBffBB|B33B33{B33qBsBffrBrBffB33}BdB33qBrBlBtBrBqBpBffvBffrByB33}B{Bff|B~BBnBiByBffBffB33BffB́BB̆BB̅B̈BffBBBB33BBBffBBffBB33BBffB33ḂBB̆BffBBzBqBoBpBvByB~BzBBffB33B}B33uBnBpBffZBffRBOBXBTBXBXB^B[Bff`B33cB33gBlB^BfflBnB^BJlBJXB%VBJ\B`B%VBY]BYWB%\BRBYQB%LB}OB}_BY]B}iB}mBYoB}cBJbB%fB}cB%bBJZB%VBYKB}YBYUB}_BRBYeB%hB%nB}cBiBYqBTceBYgBYaB^:iBwjBwkBwfB%bB%fBX~@  "Arialk1` }1953:1 1999:4dEiNESL` "Arial@DT;t TBBBzB|BBpBBtBxBBBBB|BB|BBBBhBxB`BxBlBTBdBffkBX~@ # "Arial1`7050 }1953:1 1999:4 nGALNEWFL` "Arial@DTAt>iBq&BB~)P@wIvBmuB=dvBvBvB?vBɘvB}vB/stBrBipBj7oBmBslB)kBjB>iB jBjBikBmB&nBqoB1oBnBdmBJmB9lB|kBxkB'kB@kBBgnBpB/sBJuBbxBQzB8c{B|B~B&B,BjBFB!ցB8zBB!BG,BBkB7kBIkBdkkBckB+PmBоpBԁrB IsBsBuB,\wBwBȱxBGzxB(yByBgxB~xBjzBC{B7|BJ2}B-S~B~BBlB(B]BǀB2SBB BBZB6BBAQB'tBBLnBՇBq&BX~@  V"Arial1`7050 }1953:1 1999:4GALNEWF2L` "Arial@ǽDTKt!  cBӇBlBӨlBtBrB'sqBF qB pBLoBnBWnBmB:kBiBgB?]fB̄eBdBmcB cBVcB>dBfBMhBjB7kBxlBlBZlB0kBBjBiBiB9jBjBoBDtB QyBg/}BB́BOB&BWBBC%BB%BXBQBNBޮBӇB͇BχB[BaYBmBRBoBu͂B,B B?B.BwV~B5s}BhzBpxB]wBDvBnvB/vBըvBwBSwBwBMxBxB wBvB_uB BtBsB*PuBxB{B}BL)B[BBzB]B*BBB(BcBuMBdBBaB B9B^~Bl}Bf|B{zB0wB!tB,UrB#rBoBo2nBlB| oBproBmpB\JrB@tBvBMyBzBD|B9|Br|B{BzBxBPswBuBtB|sB;wrBDqBCpBfnBOmB#nBoBٖpB3qBqB ZrBrB1rBqB:qBjpB_oBnBWlBDkB,nkBĚmB4lB/+kBjBH~lB oBrBuuB5TwBexBwBG6wBwBxByBjxBxBxB7yBfyByBzBzB(|B|}B ~B BB{BiuB2,BB=BB(BIBDLBX~@ >O"Arial1`7050 }1953:1 1999:4dEiGallup Pollsdd` "ArialboXfoXi4W@DTVt, $YKBBghrBfflB33gBlBmBnBffnBtBzBnBfflBjBfBbB^BaB`BeBbB33kBuBkBfftBnB33{BffxBffpB33qBfftB{BpBsB{B33B̀BBB33B33BffzB33Bff~BBBBBBffBBBBffBB|B33B33{B33qBsBffrBrBffB33}BdB33qBrBlBtBrBqBpBffvBffrByB33}B{Bff|B~BBnBiByBffBffB33BffB́BB̆BB̅B̈BffBBBB33BBBffBBffBB33BBffB33ḂBB̆BffBBzBqBoBpBvByB~BzBBffB33B}B33uBnBpBffZBffRBOBXBTBXBXB^B[Bff`B33cB33gBlB^BfflBnB^BJlBJXB%VBJ\B`B%VBY]BYWB%\BRBYQB%LB}OB}_BY]B}iB}mBYoB}cBJbB%fB}cB%bBJZB%VBYKB}YBYUB}_BRBYeB%hB%nB}cBiBYqBTceBYgBYaB^:iBwjBwkBwfB%bB%fBX~@ ^"Arialk1`7050  }1953:1 1999:4-dEiNational Election Studiesdd` "ArialRX@D!Tet;3TBBBzB|BBpBBtBxBBBBB|BB|BBBBhBxB`BxBlBTBdBffkBYearmB"ArialMacropartisanship"Arialj`cc }2( "Arial1Mhh|t???X~@  "Arial1` }1953:1 1999:4VcGALNEWF88L` "Arial@ DJTtd \cBQ)BntBqBVpBQpBUoBoB\5nB SnBlB kBNiBgBCfBbeB+YeB dBcB5eB:fBFhB6GkBHmBnWnBnBnB$nBmBkBjBkB(kB9kB[rB"xB}B5ԀB(ڂBB6>B`B쑅BdsBfCBOB=B+BBԇBBQ)BBLԇBa3BBBƒB݂BrIBlBB@BBU%~B}ByBtwBDvBSuBuBPuBfsuB^uB*@vB:vBeLwBځwBҜvB{xuBsBrBffrBMtB- xBs_{BbBBB@ B؁B%BB݀BB"B}CB}B{B)~B_BYBOÀBMBu~B=L}B|B2zBrwBtB#sBsBQOqB$pBP{B yB|wBuB>tBUrB)rBpBoBBnBmBqlBkmBBoBpB@qBqBrB sBrBqBH qBNpBmnB+mBkBGkBfkBnBlBf|kB]KkBGmB*qB7"tB+PwBIxBO0zByBPyB1yBT{BP{B^{B \{Bp{BG4|Bg|B|Be#}B ~BxWBYBBBkBBB퀄BBQBBBBnӅBX~@ Z"Arialk17'` }1953:1 1999:4YAMacropartisanshipdd` "ArialRX@DVTFt4YKBBfffff&F@rBfflB33gBlBmBnBffnBtBzBnBfflBjBfBbB^BaB`BeBbB33kBuBkBfftBnB33{BffxBffpB33qBfftB{BpBsB{B33B̀BBB33B33BffzB33Bff~BBBBBBffBBBBffBB|B33B33{B33qBsBffrBrBffB33}BdB33qBrBlBtBrBqBpBffvBffrByB33}B{Bff|B~BBnBiByBffBffB33BffB́BB̆BB̅B̈BffBBBB33BBBffBBffBB33BBffB33ḂBB̆BffBBzBqBoBpBvByB~BzBBffB33B}B33uBnBpBffZBffRBOBXBTBXBXB^B[Bff`B33cB33gBlB^BfflBnB^BJlBJXB%VBJ\B`B%VBY]BYWB%\BRBYQB%LB}OB}_BY]B}iB}mBYoB}cBJbB%fB}cB%bBJZB%VBYKB}YBYUB}_BRBYeB%hB%nB}cBiBYqBTceBYgBYaB^:iBwjBwkBwfB%bB%fBX~@ `7050 }1953:1 1999:4zcdd` "ArialV\XXX0@DtcBQ)BntBqBVpBQpBUoBoB\5nB SnBlB kBNiBgBCfBbeB+YeB dBcB5eB:fBFhB6GkBHmBnWnBnBnB$nBmBkBjBkB(kB9kB[rB"xB}B5ԀB(ڂBB6>B`B쑅BdsBfCBOB=B+BBԇBBQ)BBLԇBa3BBBƒB݂BrIBlBB@BBU%~B}ByBtwBDvBSuBuBPuBfsuB^uB*@vB:vBeLwBځwBҜvB{xuBsBrBffrBMtB- xBs_{BbBBB@ B؁B%BB݀BB"B}CB}B{B)~B_BYBOÀBMBu~B=L}B|B2zBrwBtB#sBsBQOqB$pBP{B yB|wBuB>tBUrB)rBpBoBBnBmBqlBkmBBoBpB@qBqBrB sBrBqBH qBNpBmnB+mBkBGkBfkBnBlBf|kB]KkBGmB*qB7"tB+PwBIxBO0zByBPyB1yBT{BP{B^{B \{Bp{BG4|Bg|B|Be#}B ~BxWBYBBBkBBB퀄BBQBBBBnӅB`cc }2( "Arialt0???GALNEW C GALNEW(-1)1953:1 1999:4 C(1) C(2) C GALNEW(-1) GALNEWGALNEW = C(1) + C(2)*GALNEW(-1)1953:1 1999:4&wT?YN@I09 ?Ӿc g@x=?p%7@ѽ-j@ [@|_wko:@Q飹9@BA8BA8BA8@g@ѽ-j@bgz @~I͎PK?Sample: 1953:1 1999:4Included observations: 188.D8r@҇@W$9j?2F Vao vGALNEW C GALNEW(-1) MA(1)1953:1 1999:4 C(1) C(2) C(3) C GALNEW(-1) MA(1) GALNEWGALNEW = C(1) + C(2)*GALNEW(-1) + [MA(1)=C(3),BACKCAST=1953:1]1953:1 1999:4bHĽ(?YN@6?Ӿc g@€???`E@*'ⷂ@l^{(R@]%zwu07@ *;d@BA8BA8BA8@g@*'ⷂ@ih@_OS#U? ʵhD?KVvHamwx?3?Sample: 1953:1 1999:4Included observations: 188Convergence achieved after 6 iterationsBackcast: 1952:4#F0 V@ P8_u((,S@p$0i?3ɿ?? @\:b?*5ĶcO5g @!8_$g'?ƅY?H+S/v1@GfX8?їL揷&9?y L!?O@Чf@Crh`?;v?-puCeſ?n3? }䤑ֿfgonb26&s @z0{0M@*REQL ^@PYŠ?k=3?b.&f?{pb̗?UY zкx+Iʿ pA*_K?MWѨ׿e\`ܿSGALNEW C GALNEW(-1) MICS*PARTY PARTY1953:1 1999:4 C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C GALNEW(-1) MICS*PARTY PARTY GALNEWGALNEW = C(1) + C(2)*GALNEW(-1) + C(3)*(MICS*PARTY) + C(4)*PARTY1953:1 1999:4L_&S?YN@n?Ӿc g@pO?!waXs1@-E@w@&iw\xuFu@{"@BA8BA8BA8@g@-E@ <)@ @ƎbRxD/GDb?YIaM?uE>;b^V/} M#?ײacfF?Sample: 1953:1 1999:4Included observations: 188fP38N4@lW?v; ͛?p&& =AAD ?ks~ge(@lA@쿨/}Q2QSoO@~!h{D @^xh@{@('@G*!@OYIpQ"\@'w3v׿;݊0@S i7u@-?^;mʿhʄRCd@$Y@@BA8BA8BA8@X@`Hs@-@G۽. P ?Y̲?)N!T?^E^#?,^sVCTQ{,)?J.檑 +66f`?WpW?~b|?ݖ!?Sample: 1976:1 1999:4Included observations: 96Convergence achieved after 9 iterationsBackcast: 1975:4xG V@F9+A(([˪?$?G?77ݖ!ǿ++%% 2``9(D'@6IQ@?xCʿ5Cesx@WP9?߼v?:$׽ӿ֥gn?n ղ?!?"b?Ӄ/,@4(?v"o‡@fjE]?X˵R?U=D]U?oh97?]@hyuhֿVP\?&+'?"S?AΆ?ϔ?nwvvkCY??fi/z? K;LVw1`锛?Ί #<ʙ%T\? yݰ*Ib{? i?h? ꊉYCBSNYT C CBSNYT(-1) MICS*PARTY PARTY MA(1)1953:1 1999:4 C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C CBSNYT(-1) MICS*PARTY PARTY MA(1) CBSNYTCBSNYT = C(1) + C(2)*CBSNYT(-1) + C(3)*(MICS*PARTY) + C(4)*PARTY + [MA(1)=C(5),BACKCAST=1976:2]1976:2 1999:4 #~?0FL@J*DgE?5Y5c@Q@E/@;mh}@a6@jxM+^jߨKzW@c϶?BA8BA8BA8@W@;mh}@@W@К?2jZ>cst;#vh??*>??EN?(߰~^_/@> ?fw~ ? _x?q^}?6Y:ɹ?Sample(adjusted): 1976:2 1999:4Included observations: 95 after adjusting endpointsConvergence achieved after 17 iterationsBackcast: 1976:1x> V@F9 "44B))vnM$?i2iP? /}5?4 6Y:ɹ,,%%)``0(?pgl?d?rX?GW?QU?uy>?1?>swD?FO?霿_?ӌ]? ߀]?B2H?mV?BZ?[?5r7?A/?f3?}H??M"?񴢧6?ܤBY?$J?,u2*Z?W S?yxa?M R?:.Z?cO~U?`(Y6W?[??.?Lufb?jNJ\?U&)?c?%x&?@ ]7?TZ?jc?;B?^?FtJGALNEW C GALNEW(-1) MICS*PARTY PARTY APPROVAL*PARTY1953:1 1999:4 C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C GALNEW(-1) MICS*PARTY PARTY APPROVAL*PARTY GALNEWGALNEW = C(1) + C(2)*GALNEW(-1) + C(3)*(MICS*PARTY) + C(4)*PARTY + C(5)*(APPROVAL*PARTY)1953:1 1999:4겎c?YN@YJ?Ӿc g@Rm???-@gҁ@bB+Y@;C+`1wUp@3t(@BA8BA8BA8@g@gҁ@C@Nj2FpwH:p'~?@FMh? ~P?;?S?Qh6&)^-?WG*Paչ!y4T?:0wz+-?Sample: 1953:1 1999:4Included observations: 188xe8 7Bˡ@;?y}K%gl SKp@@?55..)WYY^($T@ZfS@rڢR@b##R@UʈRzQ@ 1P@J`_P@eP@3iP@C}TP@cP@ ,QQ@?Q@ Q@e?Q@R@R@}+PlR@ٞQ@/2W[R@ sR@"Q@cR@~EQ@#fP@08Q@!lkQ@p']ZP@+HQ@Û P@+a5Q@=P@PQXyP@UUP@ưlBP@@JQ@}YQ@^"R@08R@3-(R@P R@0 Q@GDR@ &MQ@QQ@CEQ@Z2- @tB Ŀ s?$G?;IuWP?EWb?'鴒e+zqR1.a?_K ^%px Ta-0?u8ۋ.?WxU?jx?Sample: 1976:2 1999:4Included observations: 95Convergence achieved after 11 iterationsBackcast: 1976:1  x  V@F lF9  ))  ,`ǖ@4Q~?'Vެ4P?jxʿ22 L \ ))v  dd (oH :"w/I<@ DF4z_Dp@C0Vmb^/9`K?xq=7L%u*8d~@ H8ZYx7<.P\QD~qWYOZc>Xu'Kxl, .O@;=:BԺ}?Gl?Eʾ?2?(nk?'j?>x!?#33?{vW:?Xx)?a?pYvK?pYfd?2ܜ4?qЇm?* _?eq`?L>6CBSNYT C CBSNYT(-1) PARTY APPROVAL*PARTY MA(1)1976:1 1999:4 C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C CBSNYT(-1) PARTY APPROVAL*PARTY MA(1) CBSNYTCBSNYT = C(1) + C(2)*CBSNYT(-1) + C(3)*PARTY + C(4)*(APPROVAL*PARTY) + [MA(1)=C(5),BACKCAST=1976:2]1976:2 1999:4rW?0FL@x+?5Y5c@i[͒!@aٳ2@;|@z,@B >j5X@pħ?BA8BA8BA8@W@;|@?<h,?&N[/~5x?0w0W:?͒Oֻ?wj%=?24Myl78YA h&VDPh3ъ?KUZ|z'8v?m浣?!?8:0$>b?ǹ"?Sample(adjusted): 1976:2 1999:4Included observations: 95 after adjusting endpointsConvergence achieved after 11 iterationsBackcast: 1976:1x V@KF9 44)); >@rh?KQHN\?ǹ"11 Qa)){dd(/U3UG] RLkWCZÏWW;V[teSyLQ`SI>RF%eVIA2F@ȩJ@vaL@ K@LkCK@WL@;N@X[ 3M@HN@mN@Y2qP@/zwYQ@vQ@AZR@@jPQ@/*=ÃR@{mIR@5~ S@rS@%S@fYT@]zT@\)R@8R@1?R@$cX{ @kU??h0$8@xi@GCN